Prediction

[DavidA]

OK, I'm going to go out on a limb here and make a prediction that may not be too popular, but here goes anyway ...... I predict that the T-Bird will be discontinued before the 2005 Production, possibly during the 2004 run. I think it will be caused by a combination of poor economy, (especially at Ford), lack of progressove engineering such as active suspension, and from the increased competition in this small niche market segment. Anyone else have a thought on this?:puzzled:

[Gobird]

:lol:Well, you may be right, I hope it goes as long as the 50th. anniversary. Who knows just what will happen in the next couple of years. I think we all know that this body style won't be around for long. I can't believe it will last longer then 3 or 4 years. They may keep the Bird alive but in a whole different form. We are some of the lucky few to get one of these. Will have to wait and see what happends. :pink:

[AZTB]

I can't see this happening, but will be the first to admit that you all are much more privy to this insight than I am. My feeling stems from Ford's continuing effort to keep its forward motion by appealing to the young at heart...

While it undoubtedly will go out of production at some date, I simply can't see it happening within 36 months of the "Car of the Year' award...but then, what do I know?!

[TbirdTim]

Like DavidA had mentioned previously to me, I wonder if they might start up the production of a Tbird with a back seat, like they did in 1958?:puzzled: I think that they might try something like that again, especially if they think that it might help increase the sales of the car and to recreate the Tbird to sale to a whole different market niche.

If they don't continue the Thunderbird after 2005 (or 2004), I think that we will have a vehicle that will definitely begin to hold its value (hopefully starting to increase over time) and will become even more desirable over the next few decades, due to the short-lived production of the car...like the Allante's and the Reatta's that I find for sale now in the paper and on the internet.

[MATBird]

I'm not so sure yet.....
I assume that disposable income increasing (no more education funds needed etc.) for an increasing number of Boomers.
Couple this with existing two seaters and auto companies adding more two seaters to the line up. Such as Cadillac XLR and 3-4 very high priced two seaters.
Then factor in a host of aging SUV's in families, that now want to enjoy some freedom, I think there is a niche that will want to be filled.
I doubt that the market for two seaters will be as great as the SUV market was. In fact it appears that the auto companies are gearing for just that niche by recognizing low numbers.
Then there will be a fall out but I believe it will be mid-priced cars first. Leaving limited high end two seaters and 30-50K per year low end two seaters.
It will be interesting to see how it goes. Either way, I believe our T-Birds should fair pretty well.

However

[Red]

They will produce a minimum of 100,000 units (4 years?). If the retail demand drops at any point in time, they can open up A-Z and D-Plan (employee, retiree and dealership employee) to create additional demand (as they did at the end of the 2002 run). (These people who never pay MSRP for vehicles would jump all over a Thunderbird at invoice.)
I wouldn't be suprised if the Thunderbird goes 4 passenger in the future (ala 1958, like Tim said.) Instead of 25,000 a year, they will be looking for 250,000+ per year. They can continue to base it on the Lincoln LS/ Jaguar S platform, reduce features, start with the V-6 engine - V8 optional and peg the entry price at $26,000. Not a bad strategy (1958 or 2006). Now which year Thunderbird would make the best model for a heritage theme on a 4 passenger version???

[Gobird]

:ugone2far:If that ever happends I think the 58 would be the best year. There is no reason they could not make a retractable hard top out of this model. Hope this doesn't happen but you never know.

There are those dam snow flakes again.:lol::lol:

[ThunderBubba]

I had the "Bruiser" in for his 6,000 mile oil change today and Gene Evans Ford had two Birds on the showroom floor. I talked with a salesman and he said that these Birds could be had using the A Plan. So if anybody wants a black Bird with a white top and full red interior or a red Bird with a white top and full red interior at less than MSRP contact Gene Evans Ford. It looks like the supply has caught up with the demand.

[brd4jk]

here is a thought...... i heard somewhere i think on nascar that the taurus is not going to be fords race car. maybe the bird is going to 4 seater to replace..... i dont know just a thought
:goof:

[Duke583]

Ford states in a recent Ford World issue that the median age of Thunderbird buyers is 51, so if they are trying for the youth market, they are missing it so far. With the problems that Ford is having, I too would be surprised if they kept this low volume 2 seater for too many years. They know from history with the 1958 model, that they can leverage the T Bird image into bigger sales numbers.

[02birdman]

Kind of a different subject, I like it. I was offered a Black thunderbird today at dealer invoice of 35K, didn't take it but they are out there. I think the market will be driven by whatever happens overseas with our troups in 2003. If at war Ford will re-focus and not hype anything looking expensive ie: targets for terrorist. I don't think anything is more of an American icon than the Thunderbird and Ford / Wixsom is a perfect target for crazy people looking to make a statement. We may be driving a real modern day collectable if production stops before the end of the 5 year exercise.

[yelobird2002]

On the subject of Nascar, the scuttlebutt I've heard is that the new Ford "500" will take over the Nascar moniker when the Tauras retires from racing.

[brd4jk]

yelobird thats what i heard just couldnt remember exactly what it was. one of the guys that work for me drives race cars and that was what he was saying .......thanks for reminding me.:biggrin:

[DavidA]

This was in the Detroit Free Press today. I still stick with my prediction. Remember the Blackwood? They killed that after a year. Ford's development cost on the Bird was not that great since most of the mechanicals and some trim items were lifted directly from the Lincoln LS. The Chassis and dashboard were also direct lifts, albeit the chassis was shortened. Anyway, here's the article:

Ford T-Bird sales not flying

Inventories swelling; discounting looming
January 30, 2003

BY MARK PHELAN AND JEFFREY MCCRACKEN
DETROIT FREE PRESS BUSINESS WRITERS

Less than 18 months after it went on sale to wide acclaim, the Ford Thunderbird faces swelling inventories and the prospect of discounting below sticker price.

The luxury roadster finds itself struggling to reach its sales target.

"We are a little concerned about it. It's not doing great," said Michael Kennedy, chairman of Ford's dealer council and owner of four Philadelphia-area Ford dealerships.

Despite that, Ford Motor Co. says the Thunderbird isn't crashing to earth.

"Our inventory of Thunderbirds is fewer than two cars per dealer," Ford spokesman Jim Cain said Wednesday. "Some dealers may be carrying higher stock levels than usual to prepare for spring," he added, noting that nearly 40 percent of convertibles are sold from June through September.

Ford had a 133-day supply of Thunderbirds at the end of December, compared with a 26-day supply a year earlier. It hit the market in August 2001. "Days' supply for a specialty car is a very inappropriate measure," said George Pipas, Ford sales and analysis manager.

"I've only got about 6,600 Birds in stock . . . I'm completely comfortable with that."

The Thunderbird was Motor Trend magazine's car of the year, but Ford sold just 19,085 in 2002, well short of the goal of 25,000 to 30,000 a year announced when the retro convertible first went on sale.

The Thunderbird commanded $8,000 to $10,000 above its sticker price when sales began, but will probably sell for $1,000 to $2,000 under Ford's recommended price by spring, said Jesse Toprak, senior manager of pricing and market analysis for Edmunds.com, which tracks the prices people pay for vehicles, as opposed to the manufacturer's suggested retail price, or MSRP.

"We think there are going to be some discounts soon," Toprak said. "It may stabilize around $1,500 under MSRP."

The MSRP for the base 2003 Thunderbird is $37,175, including a $605 destination charge.

Convertible sales are notoriously seasonal, cooling in winter and heating up as the weather improves. However, the Thunderbird's weakening price is unusual, Toprak said.

"Corvettes and BMW convertibles sell at MSRP for years," he said. "This is only the Thunderbird's second year on the market, and you're already seeing softening in price. Next year, I think you're going to see problems.

"Once you have price softness, the only thing you can do is put incentives on the car or enhance the product."

The T-Bird was hampered by cooling-system problems that delayed the start of sales in 2001. Unspecified problems reduced production last spring, a shortage that led to anemic June sales of just 1,290 cars.

"It's not a hit," said Jeff Brodoski, senior auto analyst at automotive research firm J.D. Power & Associates. "They've kept expectations low, at 25,000 a year, but they've only had two months where they even hit 2,000 in sales. It's struggling now, and it still hasn't hit its second year."

Senior auto analyst Mike Wall of the auto-research firm IRN Inc. said it is "too soon to call the Thunderbird a complete failure, but it's safe to say it's not the halo vehicle Ford had hoped it would be. I don't see a big line of buyers waiting to get the T-Bird like the" Hummer H2 or Dodge Viper used to have.

It's very difficult for an automaker to predict demand for a pricey specialty car like the Thunderbird, said Michael Robinet, vice president of global forecasting for CSM Worldwide, which advises suppliers on the sales prospects for cars and trucks.

"There's no doubt Ford would like customer enthusiasm to be higher than it is," Robinet said. "I don't think Ford's going to throw in the towel, though. The Thunderbird is an important halo car, but it's not likely to be in Ford's lineup 10 years from now."

Ford will probably use specialty models to spice up Thunderbird sales. It is already selling a coral-pink T-Bird like the one Halle Berry drove in the most recent James Bond movie, and a more powerful model like the supercharged Thunderbird concept car displayed at the recent Los Angeles auto show is also likely.

[TbirdTim]

I expected to see Ford using the Thunderbird in more commercials and public events, promoting the car, especially after it got the "Motor Trend Car of the Year" award last year. It's sad to read that article. It's sad to hear of so many great new Tbird's sitting around without owners. Ford needs to get some exciting new commercials out there on television, touting this unique automobile and reminding people what they are missing by not stopping by their local Ford dealer to take a look at the car. I also think that having some additional special edition versions of the car will attract more people too.

[A Justin]

david... good article... i will be adding it to the news on the homepage of the website.

*didnt mean GOOD that way... just informative

[saj]

This is pretty confusing. According to these numbers, fewer than half of the 31,000 tbirds made in '02 have been sold? That is hard to swallow. :puzzled:

Here in my little town, in late '01 I went in to check on t-birds and was told by the dealership that they could only order four all year, one per quarter, an that all of those were spoken for. We did end up buying our bird from them, but only because they bought it from another dealership here in the northwest.

And it doesn't seem much different for '03. Dealerships still don't have any sitting around in my area.

Fascinating how this seems to vary by region.

[FUN X 3]

Tim- You're right, they need to get more pub out there. If one of my neighbors hadn't cruised by in a blue one last May, I'd probably still be in the dark about the car. And now that I drive one, I couldn't imagine being without one. The car is still a very rare sight here in the Washington DC area where we have oodles of people and cars...besides mine and my neighbor's, I have only seen four, that's right, 4, on the road here since I bought mine last July.

[Blue Heaven]

I agree, more exposure for the car is needed, people don't know what they're missing!!
I'm not sure how many were sold here in CT (I'm trying to find out), but I've only seen three on the road (and I is mine!) since I picked mine up last July. My local dealer has one '02 blue leftover, and I've seen one yellow and one '02 red at other dealerships in the area.

[dartguy699]

i agree with the fact that ford has done a poor job of promoting the thunderbird to the general public--not enough people know about the car to know what it is-wherever i go i am flooded with questions about it- nobody knows what it is until they see it -if ford could do a better job advertising there would be far fewer unsold cars on dealers lots.
jim

[Gobird]

This is all true, but one of the main things that turn people off that may look at the car is that many dealers are gauging people on the price.

[dartguy699]

gobird - i agree with you 110% when i got my car i told the dealer i would not even begin to talk about a purchase until they removed the outrageous markup sticker--which they agreed to do. i am sure as you are about the markup hurting sales!
jim

[FUN X 3]

Good point, I did same as you dartguy. They wouldn't even let us test drive one unless we were serious [meaning we'd pay the 5K ADM]. We walked, they called two days later saying c'mon down and make your deal at MSRP. I could have chisled 'em down further, but I had already verbally committed to MSRP, and wouldn't go back on my word.

[whvt01]

They keep talking about the target market. I think there are
a lot of folks who would like the car but are not buying because of its limited use (space wise). When mother takes out the
bird it still gets quite a few looks "but" most of the people
could not have a car like this without having other cars
or a SUV at home. In fact we even went and brought a
small SUV for her to run errands in. Going to the nursery
and loading potting soil in a tbird, I don't think so.

On my thread about bird being plentiful. I know a young
man that works at the local dealership and he commented
that they have lookers but few takers on the inventory.

That comment that only 19000 sold, would like that explained
further. Didn't they produce 30,000. You mean 10,000 are
still floating around.

?? on how Corvette can sell all it makes. I can certainly
comment it does not have much more usable space. It
must be that strong following. Vettes do sell under list
or at least around here they do. They also have a strong
resale.

[JerryP]

So much is true, the dealership I first approached about the TBird had one in his showroom. Being tall, it is important that I at least sit in the car to check for headspace. I was denied this simple request (I didn't even ask for a test drive, or have the engine cranked, etc.). I left the dealership rather disgusted and I also left with my money, which could have easily been his. Several months elapsed before I considered the car again. All I can say is , we have purchased one and have another on the way. Neither was purchased at our hometown dealership.

As for the Corvette, it appeals to a totally different client than the Tbird. The vette is not really retro, retro being the reason I think the bird appeals to most of us Boomers, but does appeal to those who desire more raw horsepower. We cannot compare the reasons that we bought the birds to those who buy the vette. I would consider both but for totally different reasons. Catch the idea? My kids I've found would die to have a vette, but will not even allow us to drop them off at school in the Tbird. I've yet to understand that logic. I'm not sure, other than marketing, why this car doesn't have the appeal to this generation of teenagers. I guess and hope it is just my kids and not the opinion of the whole age group. Ford should do some marketing research in this area. Once the supercharged bird arrives, the kids may say "Wow", and most likely will the rest of us.

I'm not even going to try to give you my take on the dealer markups, other than just lost sales.

[5bird7]

I personnally know someone who was turned off by the dealership she approached (had her money down at that dealership for 2 years). She now seems to be taking it out on the car. She won't even consider buying one now even from another dealer.

[whvt01]

Don't want to get off topic but do have to say not all vette
buyer are after the horsepower. In our club would say at
least 50% are well into the baby boomer range and past.
I'm pretty close. We do have the members that race but
overall a very small percentage of the club. Most reflect
they wanted the vette because of its past, a car they wanted
growing up. I think this has been many of the comments
on why people have brought the Tbird. The nature of the
car "are" totally difference and its not retro, its never changed
from its intended purpose. I just think more do buy the two
cars for the same reason, its something they wanted or
admired in the past. The vette and Tbird are highly visual
symbols of the two automakers.

[Gobird]

:cul: JerryP it must be your kids. I have had teens as me many questions about the Bird and they all liked it.

[whvt01]

Gobird your right

Have been out in the car when the high school has let out.
Gotten the thumbs up and heard cool car (when the top was
down). Was even waiting in road contruction the other day.
I was laughing, mom said what's funny. I told her the crew
was going, hey look at that car.

Mother has said teens have come up and gone "like that car".

[Golf2day]

As long as the T-Bird is a 2 seater it is "unique" in the Ford line up. If it beocmes a 4 seater, it will compete with the Lincoln product line.
If the sales don't meet predictions, then lower the predictions. If it still sells for MSRP then everyone is still making money regardless of the quantity.:beer:

[JerryP]

Not being defensive, but really to each his own. Opinions are what makes this forum interesting and actually I appreciate your feedback. Truthfully, I can see both groups having the same interest. I 've been an avid Chevy fan and owner for years and these are the first Fords I 've purchased since my last , a 67 Mustang GTA. I agree that there may be some nostalgia in the vette and I'm not knocking those folks. In fact, maybe someday I'll own one of those too, especially, if they would produce a version based on the mid sixty models. The horsepower would not necessarily be for racing but could be compared to just plain intimidation.
For the most part, the kids in our area are focusing on the imports, such as the Eclipse, Hondas, 3000 GTs, etc. I hate it for the American automobile industry. This may be localized and may not be true across the continental United States. I'd be stupid to think the market is the same everywhere. Good points, however, and sorry if I offended anyone.
It would also be interesting to see how many more sales there would have been if the TBird would have came out originally with a 390 horsepower power plant.

[Gobird]

Not offended here hope I didn't offend either. I do own a 69 Vette and get a lot of looks from the kids with that but then I get just as many looks and thumbs up form my 73 MGB. I was ask last summer by some kids in the parking lot at Wall Mart, what kind of car is that, I said an MGB, they'er responce was, but who makes it and what kind of car is it. What can I say Kids!!!:lol: :lol: :lol:

[JerryP]

Good point and no offense taken. I once thought of this for a vanity plate...'NOT A MG!'

[JerryP]

Oh, by the way I once own 2 MGBs (a 67 and a 74) and one MG Midget...I'm sorry.

[Gobird]

:wink: I spent 5 years rebuilding my MGB. It has 75% all new sheet metal, they were a rust bucket, complete new interior, ect, ect. $10,000 invested and I did all the work myself, even the paint job. It will never be for sale as long as I am above ground.:lol: :lol:

[JerryP]

GoBird, my 67 was like that when I first got it. It went through the entire car and if it would have been able to survive my mother-in-law's Cadillac, it might be around today. They were great fun or I wouldn't have owned three. I bought the midget off the showroom floor for $1750 and the 74 for around $3000 (I think), wouldn't I like to have them back now.

[Gobird]

If you go into members showcase under Gobirds Babys you will find a pic of the B

[bluebirdofhappiness]

So I'm not sure how true this is, but it did come from Ben Perez one of the service managers at Peninsula Ford...

I brought ZsaZsa in today for her 10k service, and Ben told me I was lucky to get one of the Thunderbirds. "They're being discontinued, you know." I fished for more information and he said, Ford only intended to make a 3 or 4 year production run like with the early two-seaters. I asked him about three times if this is correct and if it's verified and he said yes. I'll try and get some more information tomorrow when I go pick her up.

~Andrea

[Bryan Sloop]

Andrea,

Thank you for posting this "somewhat disturbing yet happy to have one" news.

Please, if you do find out more, please post. I am going to see what I can find out. Please, if anyone else gets anymore info about this, please post.

[MikeB]

I was on the BON site and saw an announcement that the Wixom Assembly plant will be closed the week of 4/7 and 5/12 for Thunderbirds (I assume this means the Lincoln line will still be running). This is not good news either.

[whvt01]

Wonder how this figure has changed from having a glut of 40%
2002 still left to be sold. I'm still seeing at least 5 02's on a
dealers lot. Strange but when you think they have sold one you
will see it back in the next week or two. Its got to be the same
cars (blue) and (white) or he manages to get an 02 blue and
white in every couple of weeks. Others sitting are black and
red.




the Ford brand.

Ford sold 19,085 of the retro-styled roadster in 2002, below its projections of 25,000 annually. After 19 months on the market, Ford had a whopping 183-day supply of Thunderbirds on March 1, up from 33 days a year earlier. Out of 8,500 cars in stock, more than 40 percent - about 3,600 - are 2002 models.
charge.






It would be interesting to know if 700 got made and how many
are still just sitting. From comments, they didn't go over as well
as predicted.


Ford to sell 700 special edition James Bond T-Birds starting next spring (09:01 July 26, 2002)


Here's the full article


(20:35:34 April 11, 2003)
Ford puts rebates on '02 T-Birds in attempt to clear inventory


By AMY WILSON | Automotive News


DETROIT - With sales falling below targets, Ford Motor Co. is resorting to incentives to clear out a glut of 2002 Ford Thunderbirds.

In mid-March, Ford began offering dealer cash of $2,000 for 2002 Thunderbirds. Ford also made the 2002 Thunderbird available for employee X-plan discounts, available to Ford suppliers plus friends and family of employees, on March 1. Discounts on the 2002 model have have been available to employees and retirees since late last year.

It is the first time Ford has used spiffs to push sales of the current Thunderbird, which the company revived in 2001 to lend glamour to the Ford brand.

Ford sold 19,085 of the retro-styled roadster in 2002, below its projections of 25,000 annually. After 19 months on the market, Ford had a whopping 183-day supply of Thunderbirds on March 1, up from 33 days a year earlier. Out of 8,500 cars in stock, more than 40 percent - about 3,600 - are 2002 models.

"It may have fallen off a little faster than expected, but I don't know if it's been a disappointment," says Jeff Schuster, director of North American forecasting for J.D. Power and Associates.

"It's been a well-received vehicle," he says. "Its span may just be a little more narrow than Ford initially anticipated."

Despite the 183-day supply, Schuster says Ford is not likely to continue with Thunderbird incentives, and the spring and summer selling season should put the car back on track.

Jim O'Connor, Ford group vice president for North America marketing, sales and service, says he isn't worried about the swelling inventories.

He says incentives are limited to clearing out 2002 models. Ford extended 2002 production into November, while it waited for an upgraded engine to become available for the 2003 model.

O'Connor also notes that convertible sales dip in winter, and Ford is expecting sales to pick up this spring. Ford is targeting Thunderbird sales of a little more than 20,000 for 2003, he says.

The 2002 model starts at $35,495, including a $530 destination charge.

With the dealer cash, Jerry Reynolds of Prestige Ford in Garland, Texas, has sold the 2002 Thunderbird for as much as $2,500 below sticker. When the vehicle debuted in August 2001, some dealers were selling the car for as much as $10,000 above sticker. Reynolds says he is not afraid to stock up on the car now that spring is here.

Says Reynolds: "I've seen more action in the last 10 days on the Thunderbird than in the previous four months.

"I will continue to buy every one they offer me."


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[HeelBird]

Our rural eastern North Carolina area must be unique. Our local dealer was allotted 3 cars for '02, and Amadeus was the first of them. I believe the population now is at around 8 cars, with the excess ones being dealer transferred to Kinston. They don't hit the road a lot, so they still turn heads, as did Amadeus today when I was driving home. He's sitting on a tad over 20,000 miles and I talked to a customer of the bank today that has a black one (HAD to have one after seeing mine), and he has but 2500 miles on his (or, his wife's)---she doesn't want it driven---afraid it'll get pollen on it. He said he was selling his Altima, and taking her Volvo, so she'd HAVE to drive the Bird!

He loves the car, too. Talked about drives back to Georgia (his home state), and how much fun the car was to drive, and enjoys the ride, too. Just another guy with the stories to let continue!

[A Justin]

Heelbird... did you mention our site to him? sounds like he should be on sharing with the other members.

[NCBlueBird]

HeelBird, What part of GA? I'm originally from Statesboro and get there several times a year.

[HeelBird]

I'll have to ask him---he may have mentioned the town, but it didn't register with me if he did.

[FordMan7]

GOOD NEWS!!!!

I have seen something interesting happening here in northern NJ in the last month - now that the perpetual snow machine has finally come to a halt it seems that bird sales are starting to pick up. One local dealer that had 5 birds three weeks ago (2 '02s and 3 '03s) has sold one '02 and one '03. Another dealership that has the same 3 '02s since december has sold all three in the last month.

Also the stock at most dealers here and in southern NY state has almost doubled in the last two months.

FordMan7 (with fingers crossed)

[FordMan7]

on a related note -

Many northern NJ dealers are now starting to offer discounts on the Birds - to the tune of $3,000-$6,000 off - that will certainly help sales!

FordMan7

[AZTB]

This weekend saw something I've never seen in Phoenix...and ad in the local newspaper by a Ford dealer advertising JUST TBirds...

[A Justin]

Maybe their listening to or reading what you guys have to say...:puzzled: :puzzled: :pbj:

[leisha]

In August 2003 I posted that the run will terminate with the 06 T-Bird since the LS would change for 07.
Looks like David's prediction has proved to be a :sadsong: , which did not materialize!

:tbn:


Aug 20, 2003, 10:01 PM · #3
leisha
Name: Tony Barrand
Location: Sarnia, CAN
Join Date: Apr 2003
Last Seen: Today
Posts: 458 2006 T-Bird!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I heard since the LS is to change in 2007, that the 2006 LS will be left as is and Ford would be tempted to keep the new bird going for one more year as long as they felt there was a demand.

From the mouth of Larry Fisher.