Future Value of Retrobirds

[cpubob]

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

Leroy I agree with Rick if you add any non original addons keep the original parts. To answer your question about mileage...I don't know the number but the lower the better.

Jerry yes I feel your Bro-in-law's pain, however 65 Fords have not done too badly if they are freshly restored or in concours condition. If he had purchased an XL conv with 427 4-speed it would be worth more than a 65 GTO!

Back in 1981 I purchased a red and white 57 Ford Skyliner (retractable top), talk about turning heads when the top went up or down! I drove it very little, car shows, club events, etc so to give my wife garage space for her car I sold it unrestored 15 years later for slightly more than I pay for it. Had my Skyliner been a 57 Chevy conv it would have tripled in valve. The #1 condition Skyliners of that time would have sold for at least double my condition 3 car, but the cost to restore would have cost much more than the car was worth to get to that condition.

[Guest]

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

Thus far the poll results indicate that half of those who voted think Retro values will be the same or lower 10 years from now than they are today.

But based on the asking prices of a number of Retros listed or posted for sale here recently it seems that owners become more optimistic about values when they decide to sell.

[11TH GEN]

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

Phil......I'll agree that recent asking prices seem somewhat optimistic as to what actual selling prices have been. The only ones bringing $20K + at this time are the ones with under 5K or so miles.

[Guest]

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

That seems to be the case Rick.

And a few Retros with under 500 miles have brought as much as $ 40,000-42,000.

A friend of mine has an 'as-new' 2002 Evening Black with just 107 miles he'd like to get $ 39,000 for. Still has the plastic on the seats and steering wheel.
(this is not a for-sale listing, just passing on the info)

[Peterfurlan]

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

Here comes a good test at Mecum Seattle. Lot # F225 2002 red with 27,300 miles. This
is a nice car from photos I saw. If it can reach 19 to 20K that would be a good sign of
things to come.

[Guest]

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

It will be interesting to see what it brings.

Dealers I've spoken with recently prefer Retros under 20K miles to get premium prices.

27,300 miles is low for a 2002, but not exceptionally low for a Retro.

[My Raven]

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

In this area they are still depreciating with no end in sight - Own it because you enjoy it.

[Guest]

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

The depreciation will eventually come to an end ... and then the appreciation will begin.

Retros are not going to decrease in value indefinitely. I recall another member's post that said something like, "mine's dropping in value $ 1,000 a year and has been since 20??).

Certainly no one here thinks they will drop to zero. Retro values will reach a certain number, stabilize and then increase. I think the bottom is around $ 10,000 for a clean, well-maintained one with reasonable miles. I realize that's subjective, and salvage titles and poorly-maintained Retros with over 100K miles may sell for less.

I don't think there's a member here that hasn't seen the value of at least one car they used to own go way up in value: An old Corvette, Camaro, Challenger, Charger, GTO, previous generation T-Birds, even more 'common' cars like Chevy Impalas, Bel-Airs ... the list goes on and on.

Most people who owned these and sold them never thought they'd go up in value ... but they did. Some by many multiples of what they cost new. And not just the 90+ point show cars and ground-up restorations. Many good, clean, original, non-restored cars have seen substantial appreciation.

Even if you think that the 2002-2005 Thunderbird is no more exceptional than say a 1960's era Camaro (of which there were a LOT more built), you've got to figure that the Retro is going to be attractive and collectible to at least some people going forward. More than a few people think it's already becoming collectible, even though current market values don't reflect that.

Take the Ford Fusion for example. Cumulative sales from 2005-2014 totals nearly 2 MILLION cars! Total 2002-2005 Thunderbird production for four model years combined is only 68,098, barely 3.5% of Fusion production over 10 years.
How can the Retro NOT become collectible?

People who sell now are selling at or near the lows these cars will see. The steadily increasing price of new cars, if nothing else, almost assures that Retro values will rebound.

[Quickdraw]

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

~~~~~Total 2002-2005 Thunderbird production for four model years combined is only 68,095, barely 3.5% of Fusion production over 10 years.~~~~~

Just for the record, so others don't fixate or quote your number, there were 68,098 made.

[Guest]

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

Thanks for clearing that up Harry!

[bmcgc]

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

I see many mint condition low mileage Fords that sell for under 10k.

A couple years back a never titled Thunderbird turbo coupe sold for 10k out of a guys collection.

I just sold a 94 Mustang GT convertible 5.0/5 speed in mint condition and only 54,000 miles on it for 6k. It took months to sell it. This was a well equipped car, leather interior, the only mod was $1500 in American Racing wheels and tires. The car was so original that at 49,000 miles I removed the original spark plugs, cap and rotor. It had never been in the rain and garaged its whole life.

Last year I sold two 65 Mustangs, a 289/C4/ps/pdb car for 13k, not show worthy but a solid rust free driver that was nice enough that it didn't need paint or interior work. A 200/C4 car that needed paint and interior work but ran like a charm sold for $3500.

After driving our 2014 premium V6 convertible, I have no desire to own vintage iron anymore. Its cool, cool to look at, but if Im going somewhere I want to go in power and comfort and get 20+ mpg.

My guess is that these cars will always have a following and people with deep pockets will desire to own the mint condition feature cars, the rest of them will continue to lose value until they are just another cool old car.

[Sierra977]

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

I see many mint condition low mileage Fords that sell for under 10k.

A couple years back a never titled Thunderbird turbo coupe sold for 10k out of a guys collection.

I just sold a 94 Mustang GT convertible 5.0/5 speed in mint condition and only 54,000 miles on it for 6k. It took months to sell it. This was a well equipped car, leather interior, the only mod was $1500 in American Racing wheels and tires. The car was so original that at 49,000 miles I removed the original spark plugs, cap and rotor. It had never been in the rain and garaged its whole life.

Last year I sold two 65 Mustangs, a 289/C4/ps/pdb car for 13k, not show worthy but a solid rust free driver that was nice enough that it didn't need paint or interior work. A 200/C4 car that needed paint and interior work but ran like a charm sold for $3500.

After driving our 2014 premium V6 convertible, I have no desire to own vintage iron anymore. Its cool, cool to look at, but if Im going somewhere I want to go in power and comfort and get 20+ mpg.

My guess is that these cars will always have a following and people with deep pockets will desire to own the mint condition feature cars, the rest of them will continue to lose value until they are just another cool old car.

That's what they are now and all they ever will be

[BirdsAndBugs]

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

I see many mint condition low mileage Fords that sell for under 10k.

A couple years back a never titled Thunderbird turbo coupe sold for 10k out of a guys collection.

I just sold a 94 Mustang GT convertible 5.0/5 speed in mint condition and only 54,000 miles on it for 6k. It took months to sell it. This was a well equipped car, leather interior, the only mod was $1500 in American Racing wheels and tires. The car was so original that at 49,000 miles I removed the original spark plugs, cap and rotor. It had never been in the rain and garaged its whole life.

Last year I sold two 65 Mustangs, a 289/C4/ps/pdb car for 13k, not show worthy but a solid rust free driver that was nice enough that it didn't need paint or interior work. A 200/C4 car that needed paint and interior work but ran like a charm sold for $3500.

After driving our 2014 premium V6 convertible, I have no desire to own vintage iron anymore. Its cool, cool to look at, but if Im going somewhere I want to go in power and comfort and get 20+ mpg.

My guess is that these cars will always have a following and people with deep pockets will desire to own the mint condition feature cars, the rest of them will continue to lose value until they are just another cool old car.

I like that term "cool old car". One car I used to like really well and have even search for it frequently in the past year on eBay is the 1986 - 1987 Oldsmobile 442. This weekend my wife and I were in California and I saw a 1986 model parked in front of one of a house down the street from my wife's daughter. It wasn't mint but was pretty nice. A week or so ago I saw two 1986 Buick Grand Nationals which were also similar to the 442. While they were nice to look at and remind me of my youthful past, I'm not sure I really have the desire to buy one anymore.

The previous weekend I attended the Vintage Las Vegas Thunderbirds meeting on a Sunday morning. It was in a parking lot at a Cars and Coffee event. I walked around and looked at a lot of nice old cars including those 2 Buicks I referred to. When I got home I told my wife that as always I enjoyed looking at these old cars but I saw nothing I really had a particular desire to want to put my money on and purchase anymore. I guess I'm content with my 2 Thunderbird toys.

[Howlandd]

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

Currently these retro birds are timeless. Everyone that sees mine for the first time ask "when did they start selling those?" They have no idea that the car is not new, but, 14 years old.

[Alamobird]

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

The Retro's main appeal was to those who remembered and wanted a 55 - 57 two seater, but were too young or couldn't afford one back then. This probably describes most Nesters, including me.

Unfortunately, the number of people who remember 1955 will start to decrease dramatically in the not too distant future. The number of road worthy Retro's will also decrease. I don't think anyone knows how many of the original 68,098 are currently still in one piece. The variance in the condition of the remaining Retro's will also widen over time.

As always, supply and demand will set the price. The high dollar trade off 's will be between buying one of the remaining Garage Queen's vs a "frame off" restoration of a Bird whose owner drove the wheels off it. Other Retro's will trade for less. Look at the Mecum & other auction results for the 55 - 57's. Quite a range.

Our goal is to live to 99, and write the last check to the undertaker and have it bounce. In the off chance fate dictates otherwise, we plan to enjoy the Alamobird while we can. Who knows if our kids and grandkids will be interested in the Bird any more than they will want the dining room table. That's why estate sales were invented.

Might as well drive it and enjoy.