Is an '02 really worth more ?

[FUN X 3]

Re: Is an '02 really worth more ?

Nope.

[4LOWBIRDS+7]

Re: Is an '02 really worth more ?

You seem to have a soft spot for 04s.

You may be on to something.

[Gobird]

Re: Is an '02 really worth more ?

Simple fact. All years are just a used car in the view of most people. I really don't care what mine is worth as far as selling it. It's worth more to me then anyone else.

[Rondor]

Re: Is an '02 really worth more ?

I have never looked at a car as an investment. To me other than utilitarian use or transportation it is an expensive hobby. If I can enjoy a hobby and recoup most of my money when I tire of it, I consider it a big win. I bought my P C R used and it is still worth what I paid for it, but We still enjoy it so no interest in selling

[Rondor]

Re: Is an '02 really worth more ?

Phil is so right about what history has taught us. Even tho' there are many trying to re-write it.

[wcoates]

Re: Is an '02 really worth more ?

If parts issues persist, the Thunderbird will go the way of the Cadillac Allante.
.

:Greg usually I'm in complete agreement with your posts but have to disagree with your swipe at the Allante. I've owned three and while they (IMHO) are the most overpriced car ever to exist I never had problems with parts even though they had 1/3 of the production of the Bird.

Three sites across the country exist (N.J., California, and Florida ) where you can get parts and advice on keeping them running. All three gents started their business with salvaging parts from wrecks. As their business grew they then evolved into parts being reproduced.
With Phil's distribution channels I think that makes him (or Thunderbird Concepts) the logical candidate. C'mon Phil!!!!!


No offense to my friends that have '02s but I don't think for a minute that they are worth more than other years but they sure beat others as fas as production numbers are concerned.

[wcoates]

Re: Is an '02 really worth more ?

Sorry dup

[BirdsAndBugs]

Re: Is an '02 really worth more ?

:Greg usually I'm in complete agreement with your posts but have to disagree with your swipe at the Allante. I've owned three and while they (IMHO) are the most overpriced car ever to exist I never had problems with parts even though they had 1/3 of the production of the Bird.

Three sites across the country exist (N.J., California, and Florida ) where you can get parts and advice on keeping them running. All three gents started their business with salvaging parts from wrecks. As their business grew they then evolved into parts being reproduced.
With Phil's distribution channels I think that makes him (or Thunderbird Concepts) the logical candidate. C'mon Phil!!!!!

OK, I was under the impression that parts problems were a big issue for the Allante too.

[jerrym3]

Re: Is an '02 really worth more ?

The parts issue is a double-edged sword. That is, the fact that relatively few owners will deal with parts scarcity, repairs and maintenance, will make the cars owned by those who do more valuable in the future.

When the first of the Ford Mustangs came out I don't think anyone was thinking, "Gee, that's going to be a collectible car someday." Even 10-15 years after its introduction, there were probably very few thinking that way.

Back in the 1970's, I bought and sold '57 Chevy Bel-Airs. I'd buy one for say $ 500, hoping I could sell it for $ 700 ... a measly $ 200 profit (though $ 200 back in 1972 was a fair amount of money). At the time, I never imagined that a $ 500 Chevy Bel-Air would ever be worth $ 40,000, $ 50,000 or more.

The history and legacy of the Thunderbird provides significant clues about the future value of Retros. 1955-57 T-Birds are already classics, selling for 20 times or more what they cost new. 1961-63 Thunderbirds, especially the Sports Roadsters, have also enjoyed huge increases in value, as have 1964-66 Thunderbirds.

Making a case for significant increases in values of the 2002-2005s is hardly a stretch. Past history is a good indicator. Keep in mind also that the 2002-2005 is the FIRST convertible, two-seat Thunderbird produced since 1957, and that average annual production of the Retros and the 1955-57s were roughly comparable ... a little over 17,000 on average for each model year (yes, the 2002 model represented nearly half total production for all four years).

To think that the Retro will somehow 'buck' a trend that's over 60 years old is pretty hard to imagine.

This is all just a matter of when, not if. And I realize that given the typical age or median age of most members here, the notion of the value of a Retro say 20 years from now is purely academic. But there will be car collectors then, there will be classic car auctions then, and there will be new generations of auto enthusiasts who will want these cars and will pay handsomely for excellent condition examples.

Just because your grandson or granddaughter who's say 5-10 years old now has no interest doesn't mean they may not feel completely differently when they're 20 or 30 or 40 or 50.

Phil, I have a somewhat different view.

Every retro and future retro owner will most likely have parts issues unless they park their car in a garage and put the key in a lock box. Parts wear out, and re manufacturers aren't jumping on the bandwagon to produce retro parts. Not enough volume, and not enough interest to make a profit. And, after a future potential buyer does some retro googling on the internet and finds out that parts availability is a problem, he may loose interest or reduce his bidding price.

The Mustang was introduced in an era when cars were king. Back then, people would take a Sunday afternoon cruise. Does anybody do that now? Do the guys today hang around the diner or drive-in spots at night and talk cars for hours?

Mustang's sales volume was outstanding. The right car at the right time. This means that 1) many are still on the road, 2) more folks still have "Mustang memories", and 3) companies find it profitable to reproduce Mustang parts. Therefore, the Mustang market remains strong. Also, the Mustang was generic mechanically minus all the computerized "stuff" that we have to live with.

The 57 BelAir became an icon. It's popularity was a quirk of luck. Wouldn't surprise me if the fuel injection option helped greatly as did crisp styling, although the 57 Ford was a beautiful car.

The 55/6/7 Tbird sold OK when introduced, but became an icon years later mainly because it epitomized that era. Back then, it was basically cars from the "big 3", Ford, GM, and Chrysler. So, the TBird stood out. IMHO, GM made a blunder by introducing a Corvette before the 265 V8 was available, equipping it with a 2 speed PowerGlide, and styling the car with a European flair. Ford was smart and went for eyelids, tail fins, and a V8 which is what buyers wanted in the 50's.

Had the Corvette been introduced in 1955 with a V8, and been styled more with the American buyer in mind, who knows?

While older TBird resale prices are really good, factor in inflation, maintenance, insurance, storage, etc and prices come back to earth.

Kids don't have the same car urge that we did, so why would they be willing to pay big bucks in the future for an old car? Even youths older than ten don't eat, sleep, and talk cars like we did. They are more interested in video games, smart phones, social media, and a car that can drive itself so they can spend more time on video games, smart phones, and social media.

Assuming there still is an old car market, the retro will bring a decent buck, but nothing relative to today's muscle car prices.

But, it really doesn't matter to many of us. I'm seriously considering leaving my retro to my godson, assuming he wants it.

And, if a 60 year trend comes around, I'd love to hear a resurgence of "doo wop" music.

[Guest]

Re: Is an '02 really worth more ?

Interesting comments Jerry, however, I think you may be missing some key points:

First, the volume of Retros produced is actually higher than production for the 1955-57, 68,0098 (plus or minus a few), vs. roughly 53,000 for the 1955-57. If aftermarket companies found it profitable (and it's obvious they did) to reproduce parts for the 55-57, it follows logically that there will be a market, and consequently aftermarket companies that will find it profitable to reproduce parts for the Retro.

And while it's true that diners, drive-ins and 'dives' may not be the milieu for current collectors, there will be new venues, events, clubs, organizations and followings for future collectors.

As for inflation, it's still with us ... quite low in recent years, but over a 20-40 year period it tends to 'average out.' Insurance on a Retro through Haggerty, J.C. Taylor or Grundy is less expensive for a Retro than for a new Toyota Prius. A few hundred dollars a year with declared value and a low if any deductible. Maintenance and repair costs are relative based on original cost when new. Yes, those costs are higher for a Retro than they were in 1957, 1967, 1977, 1987 or later for a 'Baby Bird,' but they are relative to the cost of a Retro when new.

As for what 'kids' may find of interest, or collectible 10, 20, 30 or more years from now, who can say? Regardless of iphones, video games, social media or other interests, some will still be interested in classic automobiles. You'd be hard pressed to name a hobby or category of collectible that doesn't have some followers. Wine corks, matchbooks, model airplanes, quilts, pub signs, vintage beer bottles ... you name it, someone is collecting it. And other collectors are buying and selling.

The basic flaw in this assumption as I see it, is that interest in collectible autos, or Thunderbirds, or any other make or model, will somehow disappear with the current generation, or the generation following it.

Why would interest in a car like the Thunderbird, with a 60+ year history, suddenly evaporate? Specifically, why would a two-seat, convertible version of the Thunderbird become 'uncollectible,' when nearly all previous model years, including hardtops, four-seaters, and some rather 'ordinary' designs of this car remain collectible, with substantial followings?

As for future values, if a 1963 Dodge Polara convertible can bring six figures at auction, why would anyone think a 50+ year old Retro couldn't bring comparable numbers? And few, if any, ever predicted that rather 'common' cars from the 60's and 70's would be bringing far above six figures ... in some cases SEVEN figures.

One observation you do make is accurate; that the values of Retros 20 or more years from now are almost purely academic for most members here, who likely won't be around to find out what actually happens, unless of course they live to be 90 to 100 or older.

For those who say, "I don't care what my Retro is worth, I wouldn't sell at any price," or those who say "I won't be around anyway, so what difference does it make," or others who say, "I'm enjoying it and don't care what it may be worth 5, 10, 20, 30, 40 or more years from now," that's fine. But the fact remains that someone WILL care. Someone will collect these cars and others. Someone will want them, and those someones will need parts for them, and someone will supply that need.

[Rondor]

Re: Is an '02 really worth more ?

Again,,,,,, Phil is right,,, Look at how many cars that were common as door knobs and only "just " transportation are worth plenty today.For many years if it wasn't a coupe or ragtop and over 10 years old you couldn't give it away. Look what a ]59 Biscayne is worth. My grandfather offered m his 5 year old '57 Buick and I told him to sell it I couldn't be seen in it.

[steelblue5505]

Re: Is an '02 really worth more ?

I have been following this flow of posts with great interest and find it compelling to come back to every day.

The exchange of ideas, comments and even reflections on the auto industry have been enlightening.

The comparisons to the past like the cars of the 50s to the cars of today and their value or demand by collectors are good comparisons but no one seems to be taking in to account what is going on in the energy industry. There has been great changes in the way the automobile industry has made cars preform with today's fuels or maybe it is the other way around....the fuel industry has made great changes to today's auto market. Either way what fuels today's cars and what fueled yesterday's cars will not be the same as what will fuel tomorrow's cars.

As science pushes all of us on to other fuels or means of providing energy to move us all across the country gas stations as we know them are getting fewer & fewer. Maybe not in market places like Southern California, but over all in the US the number of fuel places are getting less & less. If this trend continues and I believe it will, the purchase of gasoline to power today's cars will become more & more difficult. I believe this will have a huge effect on the collectors of automobiles. True many collections of automobiles become garage queens but there are collectors that are "runners" as well & with out the proper fuels I really think auto collectors as we know them today will become less in number thus there will be a great impact on whether a car will become a collector item or not.

[Guest]

Re: Is an '02 really worth more ?

Mike, you bring up an interesting aspect, and one, which for the most part, has not addressed here.

Also, as I'm sure most have noted, this discussion has drifted somewhat 'off topic' The more recent posts focus on the future of Retro prices, collectibility, desirability, popularity with younger and future generations, and the future of the collector car hobby in general.

Several other threads have wandered 'off course,' and there are existing threads aimed more specifically at this topic.

Anyway, back to your comments, I would say that if indeed conventional gasoline fuel becomes so expensive or scarce as to impact the industry at large, the impact could very well be to make collector cars even more valuable, if only the the wealthiest collectors or even museums.

I think car enthusiasts and collectors will always find the money for gas. They may need to cut back on the Starbucks Grande Double Latte Macchiatos, but they'll find it. The price of gas relative to the value of collector cars these days is tiny, and certainly far from becoming a barrier of entry to the future collector.

[Alamobird]

Re: Is an '02 really worth more ?

Perhaps Bill Coates needs to get his 3 Allante parts sources interested in the profit potential from Retro's. If they were able to build a business and make a profit on a market that was one third the size, serving our Retro's should be be a slam dunk.

With CNC machining a reality, and 3D printing coming of age, I'm not sure how much shelf inventory a parts supplier would really need to carry. Too bad Ford deep sixed the specs drawings, tools and dies. Nevertheless, I believe the technology probably exists to scan most parts on a car to allow them to be replicated.

I have no idea of how many Retro's are still on the road, but I'd hazard a guess that active "Nester's" represent only a small fraction of the demand for any given part.

[wcoates]

Re: Is an '02 really worth more ?

Perhaps Bill Coates needs to get his 3 Allante parts sources interested in the profit potential from Retro's.

Bob before they had a business they had a passion about the cars that I see from some of our members. Bob Dick Hussey(IMHO) in Florida knows more about Allantes than any one alive. Jonny Monzo in N.J has an Allante garage and Museum and has a once a year event in different parts of the country. Sounds like some of our world travelers doesn't it. he even has an yearly Allante repair tour to Illinois and West and another on his way to Florida.
Tom Rohner in California was the first to have rubber parts reproduced.

Bob I have parted out two Allantes and received $7400 and $7700 from the effort so I feel there is a market for our parts. I know what a helluva lot of work it is so I don't want to think about it. That's why I've said our friends LAPhil and Aaron at TBird concepts are the logical candidates. 68000+ Tbird vs 23000+ Caddys sure should convince some one to get on the stick. Allantes ended 10 years before Birds were reborn. Maybe within the next 5-10 years someone will be able to make a business plan that supports Bird parts. Wrecks, a single car garage, a set of tools, a digital camera, some shipping containers and access to Ebay and a business is born.