Future Value of Retrobirds

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

My opinion hasn't really changed Jay, I was just commenting on what nearly half the people who have voted on this poll think ... that is, Retro values will be lower in ten years than they are now. And my comment about the stock market was just a response to Harry's comment that he thinks the stock market will return (or has returned) 60% or more in ten years. I just said if all Retro owners were interested in was a return on their money, THEY would have invested that money in the stock market instead of a car that is worth less than half what it cost new, and according to them, is going even lower in the next ten years.

As far as my idea for the 'Thunderbird Investment Club,' at least one member here seems to be doing that right now, even though he's among those that think they're going down in value. He obviously sees other benefits in owning and collecting them. Based on what many think about the future value, accumulating cars that are going down in value isn't a very good investment, so the intrinsic value and rewards from owning them must be worth more than the prospect for monetary appreciation.

I'm still kind of surprised that for people who say they don't care what these cars are worth in the future, they sure do spend a lot of time talking about it.

Kind of like the prospects of the Chicago Cubs winning a World Series title. Over a hundred years now, but fans still pack Wrigley Field, year in and year out.

[11TH GEN]

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

An average new car today is $31,000

Do you mean an "average" car or the average price of all cars collectively?

[jayred1]

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

I'm glad to see your opinion has changed - a few years ago you (and anyone who wanted in on it) were going to buy a dozen or more specialty birds and store them. Now you agree that the stock market is a better investment than a car. And if you are predicting a 100+% return on the car in a decade that means the market will do even better and exceed 7% per year ... good times ahead!!

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

I said new cars 'MAY' cost an average of $ 50,000. No one can predict future inflation. Yes, it's low now, that could change, and probably will change in the next ten years. Even with an average price of $ 38,000 for a new car in ten years, a Retro priced at $ 10,000 or less would seem to be good value for the money for potential future buyers.

But if Retro owners were only interested in future appreciation they should have just put their money in the stock market. That's not why they bought them.

[Quickdraw]

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

~~~

With nearly half of those who have voted so far thinking values will be lower in ten years than they are today, and given that even with low inflation, new cars ten years from now may cost an average of $ 50,000 or more, a Retro priced under say $ 10,000 could be an attractive option. There's no telling what car buyers will find fashionable ten years from now. All it would take is some trendsetter to decide it was 'cool' to own one and plenty of people would probably jump on the bandwagon and want one too.
~~~

An average new car today is $31,000 and it is going up 60% in ten years with low inflation????? At 2% inflation the average car in 2024 will be about $38,000.

The only place you'll find 60% increase over ten years is the stock market. <sorry, couldn't resist>

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

Ronnie Milsap could see this? But Ronnie Milsap is ... oh, I get it. LOL!

[11TH GEN]

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

I love your subtlety Phil.... Cool and rational responses as you can almost sense the frustration of it by others. I'm a newbie here, however, Ronnie Milsap could see this.

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

Merry Christmas, Phil!
In light of all the discussions in this forum regarding this topic, I'm surprised you left out one option among the choices in the poll.
Throughout the many times you've broached the subject, you should have noticed how many of the responses are in the line of "So what?", and "Who gives a rat's patootie?"
How many of us do you suppose would answer in that fashion?

First, Merry Christmas to you also Ted, and to all TBN members, owners and admin.

I did consider adding an option to the poll saying something like "I don't care." I also thought of adding a sentence to the original post saying, "Those who don't care can abstain from voting," but that seemed obvious and I didn't want appear judgmental by suggesting that. That would be like saying "if you don't like it, lump it," and no one wants or needs to hear that. The purpose of the poll was just to see whether members think values will go up, down, or stay the same, not whether they have any interest in the question.

Any poll could include the "I don't care option," ... 'Most valuable die cast,' 'most popular Retro color,' 'will retro parts be hard to find,' but most don't.

So there are a number of members who say they don't care, but interestingly, are following the thread anyway. Maybe they just want to see how others voted since this is a public poll. If I didn't really care, I wouldn't even bother looking at the thread. Of course, like any thread here, everyone is welcome to post, vote or not vote (for threads that include a poll), even if it's just to say, "I don't care, but I still care enough to want everyone to know I don't care."

With nearly half of those who have voted so far thinking values will be lower in ten years than they are today, and given that even with low inflation, new cars ten years from now may cost an average of $ 50,000 or more, a Retro priced under say $ 10,000 could be an attractive option. There's no telling what car buyers will find fashionable ten years from now. All it would take is some trendsetter to decide it was 'cool' to own one and plenty of people would probably jump on the bandwagon and want one too.

As for the cars featured in video games being sought after, Murcielagos, McLarens, etc., I doubt the average car buyer ten years from now will be able to afford one. Those super exotics are out of reach from all but the very richest buyers today, and they'll only me more expensive in ten years.

[jerrym3]

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

The '50s & '60s muscle cars that were around when we were young, and maybe owned, or wished to own, have typically gone up in value due to our generation. We wanted those cars back then, and many of our generation can afford to buy those cars today and do so today.

Who in the world is going to bid up the value of the retro Tbird in future years? As they age, todays youth will be paying big bucks for the cars they liked when they were young, (JEEPS)! My 12 year old granddaughter cringes when I pick her up from school in the "old people car". Maybe, as someone else pointed out in the past, convertibles are much rarer now than in our youth and the only people you see today driving one are the older people with the money to buy them. I've never seen a young person drive a Tbird although they are now cheap enough to be affordable to them. So in 30-40 years no one will be buying Tbirds because that's the car they had as a youngster, and none will be buying them because that's the car they wanted as youths. JMHO

Agreed.

[Sierra977]

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

Face it, today's kids twenty years from now are going to want the cars that are in the video games they play today. Gallardos, Huracans, McLarens etc and some domestic aftermarket cars. Can anyone name a video game with a retro TBird in it?

[Leroy]

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

The cars that will bring the highest prices in the future are the ones that are kept original and well cared for. When you add after market junk and make mods to your car, you are taking away from the value in the future. These cars have the potential to be classic cars because of their rarity. As far as featured cars go, I think the NM is the only featured car that will be a collectors item, because of the low numbers built and the first ones built. The other featured cars were over produced, in my opinion, to be of any greater value. Just my opinion.

\ \ \ \ \____________________________________

[2K2BIRD]

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

Don't care.

From what I can see the real money in retrobirds is with Whisper White and Merlot diecasts. People that are worried about their "investment" should have bought a pallet or two of each.

[SixPac]

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

Ted, that's the option that I also wanted. It wasn't there, so I didn't vote.

[Gobird]

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

Merry Christmas, Phil!
In light of all the discussions in this forum regarding this topic, I'm surprised you left out one option among the choices in the poll.
Throughout the many times you've broached the subject, you should have noticed how many of the responses are in the line of "So what?", and "Who gives a rat's patootie?"
How many of us do you suppose would answer in that fashion?

[DaiUyTed]

Re: Future Value of Retrobirds

Merry Christmas, Phil!
In light of all the discussions in this forum regarding this topic, I'm surprised you left out one option among the choices in the poll.
Throughout the many times you've broached the subject, you should have noticed how many of the responses are in the line of "So what?", and "Who gives a rat's patootie?"
How many of us do you suppose would answer in that fashion?